Hot Issues
spacer
Covid-19 resources
spacer
How early super withdrawals add up
spacer
AFP teams up with ATO, Treasury in COVID-19 tax fraud taskforce
spacer
ATO extends initial JobKeeper payment deadline
spacer
ATO releases JobKeeper alternative test
spacer
Our Website, your resources
spacer
Consumer satisfaction up for SMSFs, down for industry funds
spacer
Superannuation for younger investors
spacer
How to stay the course in retirement
spacer
COVID-19: Early Childhood Education and Care Relief Package
spacer
Government announces mandatory code for rent relief
spacer
ATO clarifies COVID-19 rent relief concerns
spacer
SMSFs in the ATO firing line
spacer
Avoid SISR traps in early access to super scheme
spacer
Data so large it's hard to comprehend.
spacer
Ride the market to recovery
spacer
Historic $130bn wage subsidy to cover 6 million workers
spacer
Stage 2 – Covid-19 stimulus package.
spacer
Covid-19 Update - Small Business
spacer
PM launches $17.6 billion virus stimulus plan
spacer
What 2020 holds for low cost funds
spacer
Non-concessional contributions breaches on ATO radar
spacer
Expected GDP by country 2010 to 2100
spacer
Investing with small amounts
spacer
A resource hub for our clients.
spacer
New laws mean 65-year-olds should hold off on large contributions
spacer
Understanding the dangers with downsizing and super
spacer
Statistical picture of Australia - Update
Shares to remain volatile as trade war heats up

Shane Oliver - Investors should expect more sharemarket volatility over the next year as the trade war between the US and China ratchets up, according to AMP Capital.

       

 

In a recent blog post, the fund manager’s head of investment strategy and chief economist, Shane Oliver, said the US–China trade war had escalated again in August and new tariffs had come into force on 1 September.

“This follows the breakdown in trade talks between the two countries in May, and consequently, President Trump announced new tariffs on China in early August,” Mr Oliver said.

“More recently, the situation escalated as China retaliated, and the US then retaliated and so on.”

Mr Oliver said despite this amplification of the trade war, a deal between the two countries was likely to be reached as consumer confidence in the US economy could be affected if the situation went any further.

“The impact has not really hit consumers in the US and globally yet, as while tariff rates have gone up, they haven’t been that onerous; but if they continue, they will have more of an impact on consumers, and on products such as electronic goods coming into the US,” he said.

“There’s been a decline in business confidence and a decline in business investment, and likewise we’ve seen a decline in the Chinese economy and their exports to the US, so it is beginning to have a negative impact.”

Mr Oliver added that it would be harder to reach a deal now given trust had been broken on both sides, but that President Trump was clearly more committed to reaching one given the trade war was starting to affect the sharemarket.

“While it may be taking longer, ultimately we think a deal will be reached because President Trump wants to be re-elected next year and he may struggle to get re-elected if he lets the US economy slide into recession,” he said.

“Investors should expect more volatility and falls in sharemarkets along the way, but once a deal is reached and central banks around the world ease up on monetary policy, that should help sharemarkets on a six- to 12-month time horizon.”

 

 

Sarah Kendell
10 September 2019
smsfadviser.com

 

Pattinson Financial Services Pty Ltd ABN 17 121 851 376 is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd
ABN 47 097 797 049 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence No. 236523

Tel: +61 2 8850 6888 | Fax: +61 2 8850 6407 | Toll Free 1300 466 637 | PO Box 6253 Baulkham Hills BC NSW 2153

site By PlannerWeb